descent.space
Satellite re-entry prediction for CubeSat and smallsat teams — an orbital-lifetime forecast that updates with every new TLE, with the provenance to put the date in an ODAR or FCC filing. Private beta; public launch planned for 2026.
A university CubeSat is planned for twelve months of operations. Atmospheric drag picks up sooner than the public models predicted, the satellite re-enters early, and the grant milestones tied to it are missed. The teams this happens to rarely have a flight-dynamics group; they have a NORAD ID and a spreadsheet.
Descent takes the NORAD ID. It pulls new orbital elements (TLE/OMM) every hour, re-predicts the re-entry date when the orbit changes, and stores what each forecast was built from — which TLEs, when they were fetched, which engine version. That provenance is the point: the number has to hold up in an ODAR, an FCC 5-year-rule filing, or a paper, not just on a dashboard.
Two products come from one engine: a live forecast for satellites still in orbit, and a one-time post-mission report (predicted versus actual, full TLE record) for satellites that have already come down. The report is free. Built under Drunik in Belgium.